If you write an offer on a Madison home this fall and leave the tax proration boxes on the WB-11 Residential Offer to Purchase blank, closing will use the prior year's net general taxes, or the current year's if they're available. On a closing between now and December, that usually means the 2025 bill. The 2025 bill was built on 2025 assessments. Those assessments moved unevenly across Madison's neighborhoods in 2026, so the old tax figure is closer to the coming bill in some neighborhoods than in others.
The tax figure on a listing is a starting point for estimating carrying costs. How far it drifts depends on where the house sits. That matters more than usual right now. In August 2026, the Wisconsin REALTORS Association put the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.67%, and its affordability index fell to 116, the lowest since tracking began in 2009.
The levy sets the bill's size, and assessments divide it
Madison's own explanation is direct. Assessments are meant to be revenue neutral. A higher assessment doesn't give any taxing body more money to spend. The total amount collected, the levy, is limited by state formulas and grows mainly through net new construction or a referendum. Assessments decide what share of that total each property pays. In the Mayor's Office explainer, the City puts it this way: if a property's taxes rise, it's likely because that property's value rose relative to other local properties.
City Assessor Michelle Drea said the same thing in a Cap Times interview about the 2026 assessments: "your assessments are really designed to be revenue-neutral." She described assessments and taxes as two separate things, with assessments based on fair market value.
The City's history for the average single-family home shows how far apart the two numbers can be:
| Year | Average assessment | Assessment change | Taxes on average home | Tax change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $376,900 | 12.40% | $7,468.41 | 3.51% |
| 2023 | $424,400 | 12.60% | $7,757.38 | 3.73% |
| 2024 | $457,300 | 7.80% | $8,095.57 | 4.18% |
| 2025 | $481,300 | 5.20% | $8,979.28 | 9.84% |
| 2026 | $500,300 | 3.90% | Not available yet | Not available yet |
In 2022 and 2023, assessments rose by double digits while taxes on the average home rose less than 4%. In 2025 it went the other way. Assessments rose 5.2% and taxes rose 9.84%. The City links that jump mainly to the 2024 school referenda. The school district's levy rose about 20% that year, and the school levy tax credit rate fell 7.65%. The levy decided the size of the bill. The assessment change for a typical home had little to do with it.
Where 2026 values moved away from the city average
Here's where neighborhood matters. The 2026 Property Tax Base Report shows the average single-family assessment up 3.9% citywide, to $500,300, as of January 1. The averages in individual assessment areas spread well beyond that.
| Assessment area | 2025 average | 2026 average | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muir Field West | $249,200 | $299,400 | 20.1% |
| Highlands-Skyline | $1,024,500 | $1,229,900 | 20.0% |
| Westmorland | $523,800 | $571,700 | 9.1% |
| Orchard Ridge | $449,900 | $484,400 | 7.7% |
| Olbrich | $331,200 | $354,300 | 7.0% |
| Tenney Park | $626,600 | $635,500 | 1.4% |
| Parkwood Hills | $663,200 | $668,600 | 0.8% |
| Elvehjem-Buckeye-Droster | $412,300 | $414,100 | 0.4% |
| Walnut Grove/Sauk Creek | $570,700 | $572,500 | 0.3% |
Every home in a taxing jurisdiction pays the same rate. So a home in an area that rose about 20% while the citywide average rose 3.9% now carries a bigger slice of the same levy than it did last year. A home in Walnut Grove/Sauk Creek or Parkwood Hills, where values barely moved, carries a slightly smaller slice. Neither change shows up in the 2025 tax figure on a listing.
The Cap Times reporting says the high-growth group also included Acacia Ridge at 20% or more. Westmorland, Sunset Village, Brittingham Park, Olbrich Park, Village at Autumn Lake, Woods Farm and others rose in the 7% to 13% range. Drea explained the Muir Field West increase as the price of a competitive entry-level market:
"Primarily Muir Field West, that 20% is showing an entry-level market where there are still competitive homes for maybe $250,000 to $350,000, which is achievable for people."
She also mentioned teardowns and new builds as a possible factor. She noted that the office did its first residential land review in decades for this cycle. That review raised vacant land values and changed how value was split between land and improvements on many parcels. So a buyer could see a land-heavy lot reassessed for reasons that have nothing to do with the house on it.
For a buyer, this works against intuition. The neighborhoods where entry-level competition pushed values up fastest are the same ones where the 2025 tax figure is likely to fall furthest behind the next bill. A buyer comparing a Muir Field West listing with one in an area that held flat could be comparing tax figures that will change at different speeds.
What the December 2026 bill is still waiting on
No one can calculate the size of the overall levy for December 2026 yet. As of September 30, this is what's on the table:
- City of Madison: The 2027 operating budget kickoff, dated June 9, 2026, assumes an $18.5 million levy increase as part of its planning figures. The executive budget comes out October 6. The City has said its share is around 35% of a typical bill.
- Madison Metropolitan School District: The Wisconsin Policy Forum's June 2026 brief on the preliminary budget projects an 8.3% levy increase, or about $305 more on a $500,300 home. It notes the final figures could change once final state aid numbers come in. The Cap Times reported the same preliminary budget as an 8.5% increase, about $311 on a roughly $500,000 home.
- Dane County: The County described a tight 2027 budget cycle in a September 2 notice. The County Board's schedule has the executive proposal due on or before October 1.
- Madison College: Its 2026–27 budget document estimates its tax on a $500,300 home will drop from $299.90 to $295.50.
Two forces are acting on every bill at the same time. The levies set how much the city's taxpayers owe in total, and the preliminary figures point up. Each home's assessment change compared with the city sets how much of that total it pays. In a 20% area, both forces push the same way. In a flat area, the second force pushes back against the first.
The two WB-11 boxes and the questions that go with them
The WB-11 gives buyers and sellers four proration options for closing. A separate box allows the parties to re-prorate after closing using the actual tax bill for the closing year. To use that, the parties check the box in addition to choosing an initial method. The obligation falls on the buyer and seller, not on the agents. The guidance cited here comes from the WRA's August 2025 Legal Hotline column. Confirm the current form language with your agent and attorney.
Before writing an offer on a Madison home this fall, these questions help turn the listing's tax figure into a usable estimate:
- Which assessment area is the home in, and how did that area's 2026 average change compared with the 3.9% citywide figure?
- What is the home's own 2026 assessment compared with 2025? The seller's assessment notice shows it.
- Will the closing fall before or after the December 2026 bill is issued? That decides which year's taxes the default proration uses.
- Given how far the area moved, would a re-proration provision make sense for both sides?
None of this is tax advice. For questions about your specific situation, talk with a tax professional or an attorney.
A few questions we hear often
If my assessment went up 20%, will my taxes go up 20%? Not automatically. Madison's own history shows assessment changes and tax changes moving at very different rates. What matters is how your value moved compared with all the taxable property it shares a levy with, and how much each taxing body decides to collect.
Does a flat assessment mean a flat tax bill? No. If the levies rise, as the preliminary school district figures suggest, a home whose value held steady can still pay more. It's just taking a smaller share of a larger total.
Where can I see my neighborhood's numbers? The City Assessor's 2026 Property Tax Base Report lists average single-family assessments for every assessment area, with 2025 and 2026 side by side.
If you're comparing a Muir Field West listing with one in Walnut Grove, or deciding whether to check the re-proration box, Phair-Hinton Group can help you find the assessment area and assessment history for each home and work out the closing tax figures before you make an offer. Let's get you home. Schedule a call to get started.
